With the government’s thrust and changing attitude of consumers, electric vehicle sales in countries like the US, China, and Europe will outpace all other engines by 2033.
This will be five years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY research and analysis. According to new projections, electric vehicle sales in Europe will surpass other powertrains sales by 2028. A similar trend will be seen in China by 2033 and in the US by 2036. EY predicts that by 2045, non-EV sales will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales. In terms of EV sales volumes, Europe is expected to lead the way until 2031, with China taking the lead from 2032 to 2050.
Randall Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader, said a mix of changing consumer attitudes, ambitious climate-focused regulations and technology evolution is about to change the landscape of vehicle buying forever. While the automotive industry has begun to embrace the move toward electrification more fully, the impact of this seismic shift is arriving sooner than many expected. “This new outlook also has implications for governments and energy industries in terms of infrastructure and electricity generation and storage, and forward-looking organisations are already using this data to help ensure a smooth transition to this new EV-dominated market, which will be here much sooner than expected,” Miller added.
This projection on EV sales has been derived from EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an artificial intelligence (AI) powered forecast modelling tool that provides an outlook for the supply and demand of mobility products and services through 2050. In terms of regulatory support, the new US administration’s announcements include continuity of EV buying incentives and the development of charging infrastructure.
In Europe, incentives to purchase EVs are part of COVID-19-related relief measures in France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Austria. Moreover, the UK has announced that it will ban the sale of ICE vehicles starting from 2030. China also continues to support EVs through regulatory measures, wide product range and increasing customer demand.
From the supply perspective, automakers globally have also begun to set their own twilight dates for gasoline-and diesel-powered vehicles in favour of EVs.