The World Bank in November 2022 released a report titled “Climate Investment Opportunities in India’s Cooling Sector”, which said the country is experiencing higher temperatures that arrive earlier and stay far longer, and could soon experience heat waves beyond human survival limit.
Even the Sixth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August 2021 warned that the Indian subcontinent would suffer more frequent and intense heat waves over the coming decade. The World Bank report further stated that the G20 Climate Risk Atlas also cautioned in 2021 that heat waves across India were likely to last 25 times longer by 2036-65, if carbon emissions remain high, as in the IPCC’s worst-case emission scenario.
The Indian government is mindful of the need for immediate climate control measures, and has been spearheading several initiatives, making policy level changes, developing strategies and making investments to bring down emissions and shift to low-carbon development.
Dubious Distinction
India today, unfortunately, has the dubious distinction of being the world’s fourth largest emitter, after China, the US, and the European Union. In fact, worryingly, the Global Carbon Budget report, published during the COP27 Conference in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt estimates that while China and the EU will reduce their emission rates in 2022, India’s emissions will spike by 6%.
Significantly, India’s relatively high emission growth rate notwithstanding, its per capita emission is still lower than that of China, the US, and the EU, with annual per capita emissions around one-third of the global average, stated a recent Frost & Sullivan article in Mobility Outlook.
It was at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 that India committed to the short-term goal of meeting half its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030, and to the long-term goal of realising net zero emissions by 2070. In 2022, at COP27, India released its Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy, sharing the roadmap of how it plans to transition to low carbon in key economic sectors.
Updated NDC
It was in August 2022 when the Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved India’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to be communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The updated NDC reads, “To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for ‘LIFE’ – ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as a key to combating climate change.”
Readers would recall that India had expressed to intensify its climate action by presenting to the world “Panchamrit” – five nectar elements – of its climate action at COP26. The recent update, the government has said, translates the Panchamrit announced at COP26 into enhanced climate targets. The update is also a step towards achieving India’s long term goal of reaching net-zero by 2070.
The updated NDC seeks to enhance India’s contributions towards achievement of the strengthening of global response to the threat of climate change, as agreed under the Paris Agreement. India has said such action would also help usher in low emissions growth pathways, protect its interests and safeguard future development needs based on the principles and provisions of the UNFCCC.
With the updated NDC, India now stands committed to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 levels and achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
Notably, India’s intended NDC to UNFCCC on October 2, 2015 had comprised eight key targets – three of these being quantitative targets up to 2030. These include cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil sources to reach 40%; reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% compared to 2005 levels; and creation of additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover.
Focus on Renewable Energy
For a country that is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for its energy needs, it is imperative that India focus deeply on renewable resources, which will not just augment energy supply but also help it mitigate climate change. Additionally, deployment of renewable energy will help advance economic development and improve the country’s energy security.
Clearly, more concerted and immediate action will need to be taken to combat the intensifying climate change crisis. The Centre has developed a strong focus on flex-fuel engines as well as alternatives to fossil fuels, including electric propulsion, biofuel, hydrogen, natural gas and synthetic fuels.
As per a May 2021 circular issued by SEBI, listed companies need to shift from Business Responsibility Reporting (BRR) to Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR) to ensure that businesses incorporate environmental and socially responsible practices in their organisations.
Several global experts observing India’s approach have expressed confidence that the country is on the right track to meet its carbon neutrality goals. They believe India could become carbon neutral well ahead of 2070 due to the variety of renewable energy strategies it is focusing on.
More Energy Demand
Considering the size of the country, the growth it has been witnessing, and the promise of further growth and development in the coming years, India’s energy demand is likely to increase more than that of any other region in the coming decades.
The Centre is aware of the challenges, and hence its push towards low-carbon, renewable sources – be it its strategy on green hydrogen, working on their grids, new priority for the offshore wind sector, and its continued focus on finding alternatives to fossil fuels, including ethanol, natural gas, biofuel and electrification, among others – seems appropriate.
Notable steps and initiatives by the Centre also include tax concessions and incentives, such as Production Linked Incentive scheme for promotion of manufacturing and adoption of renewable energy. These measures are likely to provide an opportunity for enhancing India’s manufacturing capabilities as well as exports. Moreover, they will eventually lead to increase in green jobs in industries such as renewable/ clean energy, automotive and manufacturing.
Insufficient, Poor Strategy
Despite the measures taken by the Centre, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent scientific analysis that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement, has rated India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) as “Poor”.
In a rather critical assessment, CAT says India’s strategies do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, it adds, “India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2.”
Further, CAT says India’s targets are stronger on paper, and it will already achieve them with its current level of climate action. The new targets will not drive further emissions reductions, comments CAT.
Importantly, India’s overall CAT rating remains unchanged at “Highly Insufficient”, but the rating of its NDC against its fair contribution to the 1.5° C temperature limit has improved by one category to “Insufficient”, notes CAT.
“In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5° C pathway,” the CAT assessment reports.
Betting On Coal
While criticising India’s continued bet on coal – it is upholding its plan of expanding coal capacity by another 26 GW by 2026-27 – CAT says the 1.5° C compatible scenarios require a phase-out of fossil fuels, including fossil gas. However, the Centre’s plan to increase the share of gas in the primary energy mix, and its development of new gas infrastructure, doesn’t bode too well.
Also, the fact that India continues to provide support for both fossil fuels and renewable energy in the form of direct subsidy, fiscal incentives, price regulation and other government support isn’t driving its cause well. Subsidies for fossil fuel, in fact, are nine times higher than renewables, mainly targeted at petroleum, says CAT.
In Conclusion
There seems to be clear gaps currently in India’s intent to become carbon neutral by 2070, and the measures it has taken by far to reach that goal. Nonetheless, the range of policy instruments that the Centre has rolled out in its attempt to decarbonise the country’s industries, put a check on climate change, and bring down temperature are being seen as positive, and timely, steps.
Addressing the deepening climate change concerns needs a more unified effort from all countries put together, and India has an opportunity to lead the world. Time will tell how.
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