India cannot achieve its target of 30% of passenger vehicles by 2030. There will be a significant impact if EVs are forced upon, Prof Gautam Kalghatgi, Consultant Professor, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, has said.
Delivering his presentation at the recent webinar on Dialogues on Multi-Fuel Mobility, jointly organised by the Centre for Auto Policy & Research (CAPR) and Mobility Outlook, Kalghatgi said BEVs are not green or clean in their lifecycle, and the net-zero policies taken by different countries will fail as they do not consider the complexities.
He said, overall, the transport sector, essentially driven by liquid fuels due to high energy density, ease of transport and storage, account for 14% of greenhouse gases (GHG). Light-duty vehicles account for 44% of global sales. In India, there are about 270 million vehicles, with a majority of them being 2Ws.
When talking about alternative fuels, he said it is necessary to consider that currently, 4.9 billion litres of gasoline and 1.2 billion litres of jet fuel are used each day, and the demand for transport energy is growing at an annual rate of about 1%. Therefore, if ICEs are to be eliminated from the light-duty vehicle segment, global battery capacity needs to be increased by a factor of over 200+ in the next 28 years, he said.
BEVs are not zero-emission vehicles; they are only zero-emission at the tailpipe. On the contrary, battery production itself is extremely energy-intensive compared to ICE. Therefore, hybrid EVs are the most practical and proven technology available to reduce fuel consumption, he said.
Countering his argument, Jasmine Shah, Vice Chairperson, Dialogue & Development Commission, government of NCT of Delhi, said EVs contribute to lesser emissions than ICE vehicles. In Delhi, 20% of power is from renewable sources and the industries have migrated to natural gas. In the quarter ending December 2021, the city had a 9% share of EVs amongst all vehicles sold, which is the largest for any state in India. It was just 1.2% 18 months ago, he said.
Shah said many people are thrown off by the initial price disparity, which is not more than 10-20% in the case of two-wheelers. Typical saving on an electric two-wheeler is about INR 25,000 per annum, and with the rising fuel costs, this will increase; therefore, the recovery will be less than a year, he pointed out.
The vision is to have at least 25% of new vehicle sales in Delhi be e2Ws by 2024. “If we look at the experience of the last 18 months, we have a lot to be hopeful about, and we are committed to reaching that goal,” he added.
Presenting her views, Dr Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead – Mobility, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said that transition to EVs is viable only if an extensive support system is in place.
Compared to 2016, the 2W ownership is projected to increase by about 2.2 folds and vehicle ownership for all other road vehicles by 2.9 folds in 2030. Along with growing EV sales, she said the share of public transport should also increase.
Reiterating that the energy demand is about 12% lower in 30% EV sales, Jain said if only the PV segment alone is focused for EV transformation, neglecting the public transport sector, the energy consumption is bound to increase. As a result, the import burden of an electric car would be 4-6 times less for EVs in India by 2030.
Taking on the revenue for the governments, she said the Central and State governments’ income from sales of petrol and diesel would be reduced by 15% each, in a 30% EV sales scenario. In addition, job coefficients vary across different sectors. A 30% EV sales scenario will create a market opportunity for about INR2 lakh crore for EV powertrain and batteries in 2030. The local air pollutants and GHG emissions will be lower in an EV30 scenario, in addition to a slew of gains.
EV transition includes trade-offs, however, the impacts of which can be staved off through proactive planning. About INR 90,174 crore of value-add loss will be in the oil production sector, INR 98,027 crore in ICE powertrain activity, 1.6 lakh job losses in oil production and ICE powertrain manufacturing and INR 1.1 lakh crore in central and state government revenue from the sale of petrol and diesel. However, these losses can be offset by battery recycling, installation and operation of EV charging infrastructure, construction of Giga factories, telematics products and services, and distribution and sale of electricity, Jain concluded.